Vermont unemployment rate falls again, now 2.9 percent

by Timothy McQuiston Vermont Business Magazine The September unemployment rate improved over August as have the major indicators. The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for September was 2.9 percent. This reflects a decline of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised August rate (3.0 percent). The number of employed increased, the number of unemployed decreased and the Labor Force, which has been an ongoing weakness in the state economy the last few years, also increased. The year-to-year numbers were not quite as strong, as the Labor Force lost ground as the other data points improved.

Vermont is struggling with a very tight labor market. Unemployment claims have been historically low since mid-summer. Matching the right workers with the right jobs across the state has been difficult for several years. And a tight housing market has led to a high cost-to-income ratio, relative to nearly every other state (Vermont 40th; Hawaii 50th; Ohio 1st,USNews.com).

The United States unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, which experienced a two-tenths of one percentage point decrease from the revised August estimate. Unemployment rates across the country have fallen (SEE TABLE BELOW). Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was the seventh lowest in the country for the same time period. New Hampshire is fourth (2.7 percent); North Dakota is first (2.4 percent) and Alaska is last (7.2 percent).

As of the prior month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the thirteenth lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas.

“The preliminary seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Vermont of 2.9% is the lowest in over a decade. The last time the unemployment rate was below three percent was in December 2000, nearly 17 years ago. Needless to say, employers are looking for workers at all levels. Students, career changers, re-entrants to the labor market – whatever your individual situation, there are opportunities for you in Vermont. The Department is hosting job fairs and employer engagement events all over the state to assist in matching willing and able workers to hiring employers,” said Lindsay Kurrle, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor.

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for September show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 350 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed increased by 650 and the number of unemployed decreased by 300. The changes to the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The September unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.3 percent in White River Junction to 4.3 percent in Bennington and Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the September unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.9 percent which reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted August level and a decrease of three-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

Importantly, both the seasonally and not-seasonally adjusted employment numbers increased.

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for September show an increase of 4,200 jobs when compared to the revised August numbers. There was an increase of 400 jobs between the preliminary and the revised August estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the September numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal movements in local government education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ September data, Total Private industries have increased by 2,500 jobs (1.0 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 100 jobs (-0.2 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for September reports an increase of 1,100 jobs from the revised August data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised August numbers which experienced an increase of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in September were mixed at the sector level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Durable Goods Manufacturing (+500 jobs or +2.9%) and Construction (+400 jobs or +2.7%). Sectors with a notable percent decrease include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-300 jobs or -5.8%) and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (-100 jobs or - 3.3%).