Vermont unemployment rate holds at 4.1 percent in January

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Vermont unemployment rate holds at 4.1 percent in January

Tue, 03/17/2015 - 1:04pm -- tim

Vermont Business Magazine The number of jobs created in January showed a modest increase, as the jobless rate itself remained the same as December and the same from last year. Construction and Hospitality were up, while Manufacturing and Business Services were down.

The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January 2015 was 4.1 percent. At this level, the statewide unemployment rate held steady from the revised December rate (4.1 percent). The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 100 from the prior month estimates. The number of employed increased by 200 and the number of unemployed decreased by 250. None of the over-the-month changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The national average in January was 5.7 percent, which experienced an increase of one-tenth of a percent from the December number. Based on the revised 2014 data, the annual average statewide unemployment rate in Vermont for 2014 was 4.1 percent - a decrease of three-tenths of a percent from the 2013 annual data.

The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 100 from the prior month estimates. The number of employed increased by 200 and the number of unemployed decreased by 250. None of the over-the-month changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

Not Seasonally Adjusted

It's interesting to note that the Adjusted and Not Adjusted numbers showed a broad difference. The Unadjusted rate is 4.6 percent, eight-tenths higher than last month and one-tenth lower than last year (all three numbers were identical when adjusted). Also, the number of jobs, up slightly when looking at the Adjusted data, fell steeply in the Not Adjusted table below.

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for January show a decrease of 7,200 jobs when compared to the revised December numbers. There was an increase of 1,500 jobs between the preliminary and the revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the January numbers was attributable to seasonal decreases related to construction, retail and education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ January data, Total Private industries have increased by 4,500 jobs (1.8 percent) and Government employment increased by 700 jobs (1.2 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally Adjusted

The seasonally adjusted data for January reports an increase of 1,100 jobs from the revised December data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised December numbers which experienced a 1,500 job increase from the preliminary estimates.

The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in January were minor at the sectorial level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Construction (+700 jobs or +4.8%) and Leisure & Hospitality (+300 jobs or +0.8%).

Industries with a notable percent decrease include: Manufacturing (-500 jobs or -1.6%) and Professional and Business Services (-100 jobs or -0.4%).

Source: Vermont Dept of Labor 3.17.2015