Chris Graff

John Becker died over the Christmas holidays. Most Vermonters today probably don’t recognize Becker’s name, but he had his finger on the pulse of Vermont for more than 20 years. From the 1960s through the 1980s the Boston-based Becker Research was the dominant polling firm in Vermont. He worked for a number of candidates, did polling for WCAX-TV and for a number of business groups. Becker himself was responsible for one of the first major political television ads in a Vermont campaign, one that is now a legend in the national political world.

The question I hear more than any other these days is, “Who’s going to win the Democratic primary for governor?” My answer: “I’ll let you know after they count the votes.” And anyone who tells you they know better is spinning a tale. Primary elections are incredibly difficult to predict. The turnout is relatively small and Vermont’s open primary system – by which any voter can vote in any primary – makes accurate polling impossible.

As we close out the first decade of the 21st century I am struck by what a remarkable 10 years it has been for Vermont. I can’t think of a time – with the exception of when Calvin Coolidge was president – in which Vermont and Vermonters have had such a huge impact nationally. Topping the list are two Vermonters and one event.

In past columns I have said that history and demographics are on the Democrats’ side in the 2010 gubernatorial race. History because since 1962 the office of governor, when open, has alternated without fail between a Democrat and a Republican, reflecting a pulse of politics in which progressive periods follow more conservative ones. Following the eight years of Republican Jim Douglas, history would say that in 2010 Vermonters will choose a Democrat.

Governor Jim Douglas’ decision not to seek re-election was the right decision for him personally and for the state. He has avoided the fate suffered by most governors of the last 40 years, who stayed in office too long, ending their tenure somewhat battered and bruised. The job of governor is exhausting and it has been worrisome to see the tenure of governors stretching out – to Howard Dean’s modern time record of 11 years. Douglas is leaving before he has overstayed his welcome (although some would disagree) – and at a tenure of eight years.

Any list of what makes Vermont special must include WCAX-TV. Since it went on the air in 1954 the station has maintained a folksy, old-fashioned approach to its news programming that reflects the state.

Quiz time: When was the last time Vermont Democrats have had a seriously contested gubernatorial primary? Answer: 1980 when Jerry Diamond, who was the attorney general, faced off against Tim O’Connor, who was the speaker of the House. Diamond won the primary - 50 percent to 48 percent - and went on to lose the general election to incumbent Governor Richard Snelling. That was nearly 30 years ago, which is why I suspect that few people today understand how damaging primaries can be.

Lisa Ventriss, president of the Vermont Business Roundtable, stood at the podium in the Emerald Ballroom of the Sheraton Burlington. Many hundreds of business leaders from around the state filled the room, attending the Roundtable’s summer celebration dinner. Lisa was introducing Governor Jim Douglas. She told the story of a young woman new to her staff who had been juggling her baby, the full range of baby paraphernalia, and assorted carry on items as she struggled to get through the TSA screening at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

The dispute over the state budget was the constant of the 2009 Legislature but it will not be what history will remember. Gay marriage will be the historic imprint of this year’s session, the single mention that will be carried down through the years. Legislatures rarely have such huge cultural issues come before them - and this one has the added twist of a veto showdown with the governor.

A Summit on the Future of Vermont is scheduled for May 11 at the University of Vermont. The summit is the final step in a nearly two year long effort by the Vermont Council on Rural Development to take the temperature of today’s Vermont and plan for tomorrow’s Vermont. VCRD created the Council on the Future of Vermont to accomplish this task. I was one of the members and truly enjoyed the opportunity to listen to Vermonters talk about Vermont. The Council heard from some 4,000 Vermonters in one form or another.