Chris Graff

So here it is, the beginning of August, and we are no closer to knowing who will be the Democratic gubernatorial nominee than we were a year ago. Well, we are a little closer. It would be quite the upset if state Senator Susan Bartlett wins the nomination in the August 24 primary. She performed well in many of the forums and debates but failed to translate that into the contributions and supporters necessary to build a get-out-the-vote operation.

 Every political analyst in the state devoured the latest Rasmussen poll, trying to determine if there was meaning in the numbers. There was not. The poll matched Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dubie against each of the five Democratic hopefuls. He beat them all. But this race for governor will be decided in October. The support that Dubie has today is irrelevant. Right now the Democratic field is too crowded, the message too muddled. Few voters really know much about any of the candidates – or even Dubie for that matter.

Funny thing about how legislative sessions are graded: Perception always trumps reality. Sessions are evaluated based on how people feel about them when the final gavel falls. No one ever digs down or follows up and evaluates the session’s true performance. So the fact that both the Republican governor and the Democratic leadership of the House and Senate joined together in declaring that “Vermonters won” in the 2010 session shaped the perception of a successful session – and the headlines and opinion pieces that followed.

I was in the grocery store the other day picking up equal portions of food and political gossip. There's nothing quite like shopping in Montpelier where it seems that every third person is either in politics or dependant on it. For perhaps the 10th time in as many days I was being told that not one of the five Democratic gubernatorial candidates has caught fire, there is no buzz about the Democratic primary, and surely this is a sign that Brian Dubie will be elected governor. Hey, folks, it is only May. It is a long, long road to November.

Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie would defeat four of the five Democratic gubernatorial candidates if the election were held now, according to a poll released February 17. Only Secretary of State Deb Markowitz would beat Dubie - and Markowitz’s edge, 43 percent to 41 percent, with 16 percent undecided – is within the margin of error of the poll, conducted over Valentine’s weekend for a trio of news organizations, Vermont Business Magazine, WCAX-TV and WDEV Radio Vermont.

John Becker died over the Christmas holidays. Most Vermonters today probably don’t recognize Becker’s name, but he had his finger on the pulse of Vermont for more than 20 years. From the 1960s through the 1980s the Boston-based Becker Research was the dominant polling firm in Vermont. He worked for a number of candidates, did polling for WCAX-TV and for a number of business groups. Becker himself was responsible for one of the first major political television ads in a Vermont campaign, one that is now a legend in the national political world.

The question I hear more than any other these days is, “Who’s going to win the Democratic primary for governor?” My answer: “I’ll let you know after they count the votes.” And anyone who tells you they know better is spinning a tale. Primary elections are incredibly difficult to predict. The turnout is relatively small and Vermont’s open primary system – by which any voter can vote in any primary – makes accurate polling impossible.

As we close out the first decade of the 21st century I am struck by what a remarkable 10 years it has been for Vermont. I can’t think of a time – with the exception of when Calvin Coolidge was president – in which Vermont and Vermonters have had such a huge impact nationally. Topping the list are two Vermonters and one event.

In past columns I have said that history and demographics are on the Democrats’ side in the 2010 gubernatorial race. History because since 1962 the office of governor, when open, has alternated without fail between a Democrat and a Republican, reflecting a pulse of politics in which progressive periods follow more conservative ones. Following the eight years of Republican Jim Douglas, history would say that in 2010 Vermonters will choose a Democrat.

Governor Jim Douglas’ decision not to seek re-election was the right decision for him personally and for the state. He has avoided the fate suffered by most governors of the last 40 years, who stayed in office too long, ending their tenure somewhat battered and bruised. The job of governor is exhausting and it has been worrisome to see the tenure of governors stretching out – to Howard Dean’s modern time record of 11 years. Douglas is leaving before he has overstayed his welcome (although some would disagree) – and at a tenure of eight years.