10 Reasons Brian Dubie could be Vermont’s next governor

In past columns I have said that history and demographics are on the Democrats’ side in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

History because since 1962 the office of governor, when open, has alternated without fail between a Democrat and a Republican, reflecting a pulse of politics in which progressive periods follow more conservative ones. Following the eight years of Republican Jim Douglas, history would say that in 2010 Vermonters will choose a Democrat.

Demographics because this state today clearly favors a more liberal candidate. In the 2008 presidential election 31 percent of Vermont voters self-identified as liberal – compared to 22 percent nationally - while only 25 percent said they were conservative – compared to 34 percent nationally.

That said, I do believe that Brian Dubie has an even or better chance of winning the 2010 race. Here’s why:

1. Democratic disarray: With five Democrats lined up and ready to battle for the gubernatorial battle – and I mean battle – attention will be focused on the Democrats for much of the next year and their arguments with each other. Dubie will be able to remain above the fray. The Democratic primary means there will be no head-to-head debates featuring Dubie until after the primary. In 2002 the gubernatorial candidates debated 36 times, with many coming during the summer. That won’t happen this time.

2. Dubie’s personality: Brian Dubie is hard to pigeonhole. He takes some pragmatic stands – cows to Cuba – that show he is not your traditional conservative. He also comes across as a nice guy. And in the end personality matters more than party affiliation in choosing a governor. Vermonters want to feel comfortable with their governor, more so than in whom they might elect to the US House or the US Senate.

3. Sense of balance: With the Democrats holding such a dominant position in the Legislature – strong majorities in both chambers, most all of the committee chairmanships and all of the top leadership positions – Vermonters may want to inject some balance into the political equation by having a Republican chief executive. Governor Jim Douglas has worked hard to promote his belief that only he stands between the Democrats and financial ruin for the state. That argument may work as well for Dubie.

4. The state of the economy: In tough times some surveys have shown that voters feel more comfortable with a fiscal conservative in the governor’s office. In the 2008 election Douglas won 51 percent of the vote of those who said they were worried about economic conditions.

5. The election calendar: The 2010 primary is the latest possible date – September 14 – while the general election is the earliest possible date – November 2 – which means the Democrats will have the shortest possible time to rally around their nominee and focus their fight and their money on Dubie.

6. The Douglas factor: If Jim Douglas had run in 2010 the odds were that he would have won. It would have been messy and expensive – and close, but he probably would have won. Dubie doesn’t have Douglas’ stature, and has miles to go before he has Douglas’ command of the issues and knowledge of the state, but he will be helped if Douglas is out there campaigning for him.

7. Energy issues: I think a case can be made that the state is not as liberal as the Democrats in the Senate and not as conservative as Douglas. Vermont has a very strong and vocal progressive streak, but there is a wide band of moderate Vermonters who make the difference in key elections. In the 2008 election 44 percent of voters self-identified as moderates and when asked party identification, 40 percent said they were independents. Nationally, by comparison, only 29 percent say they are independent. Several of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates have been outspoken on issues like the shutdown of Vermont Yankee and time will tell if those positions are shared by independent and moderate Vermonters.

8. The Dubie network: Each of the Democratic candidates has a map to victory, building on networks that have been years in the making. Deb Markowitz, for example, is counting on backing from the local officials she has worked with as secretary of state. Dubie has developed his own network as lieutenant governor, but he also has the potential of benefiting from the connections of his brother Mike, the state’s adjutant general.

9. The political line-up: Neither US Senator Patrick Leahy nor US Representative Peter Welch appears likely to face any opposition of significance, which means that neither will be doing the level of fundraising or building the get-out-the-vote operation they would if they did. That means Democratic turnout will not be at the fever pitch it would if Leahy and Welch faced contested races.

10. The Progressive factor: And then there is the question of a whether a Progressive candidate will get into the race. If one does, the odds of a Dubie victory go up significantly. A Democratic-Progressive split is what allowed him to win office in 2002 with just 41 percent of the vote. Peter Shumlin received 32 percent and Anthony Pollina received 24 percent.

Chris Graff, a former Vermont bureau chief of The Associated Press and host of VPT's Vermont This Week, is now vice president for communications at National Life Group. He is author of, Dateline Vermont: Covering and uncovering the newsworthy stories that shaped a state - and influenced a nation.